South Sudan’s already severe hunger crisis is worsening as a strengthening El Niño threatens agricultural production, while conflict, displacement and declining humanitarian funding leave millions of people increasingly vulnerable to food shortages.
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned in September that the impact of what it described as a “super El Niño” is already being felt across South Sudan, with drought contributing to crop failures and low yields even in some of the country’s most fertile agricultural areas. The climate shock is adding pressure to communities already struggling with conflict and economic hardship.
About 7.8 million people, more than half of South Sudan’s population, are currently facing high levels of acute food insecurity, according to WFP. The organisation also reports that about 2.2 million children require urgent nutrition support, alongside 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women. Without additional funding, more than one million vulnerable people could lose access to life-saving food and nutrition assistance by October.
The agricultural impact is particularly concerning because South Sudan’s food system remains heavily dependent on vulnerable rural communities. In Jonglei State, WFP reported that some farmland has remained submerged for seven years, preventing communities from producing food. At the same time, areas outside the flooded land are experiencing drought, creating a difficult combination of excessive water in some locations and insufficient rainfall in others.
The crisis is also being intensified by the war in neighbouring Sudan. Around 3,000 refugees and South Sudanese returnees are arriving in South Sudan each week, according to WFP, putting additional pressure on communities that are already struggling to feed themselves. Many new arrivals have travelled for days or weeks to reach safety, arriving without homes, livelihoods or sufficient food.
Food movement within the country has become another challenge. WFP says humanitarian and commercial supplies travelling along the Nile are facing illegal checkpoints and taxation, increasing transport costs and slowing deliveries. In Malakal, Upper Nile State, the cost of moving food has become so high that many products other than locally grown tomatoes, okra, chillies and onions are being flown in rather than transported by road or river.
The funding situation is adding another layer of risk. WFP says it currently faces an $86 million funding gap for immediate needs and a $416 million shortfall over the following six months. The agency warns that without additional resources, it will struggle to maintain support for refugees, displaced people and vulnerable host communities, including populations facing famine risk in parts of Jonglei State.
The El Niño threat extends beyond South Sudan. WFP says the climate pattern is also affecting food-security conditions across Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya, with the potential to amplify drought and other extreme weather across the wider region. WFP expects the current El Niño to strengthen through late 2026 and potentially continue influencing food security into 2027.
NBF Insight
South Sudan’s crisis demonstrates how quickly climate shocks can magnify existing weaknesses in a food system.
El Niño is not acting alone. Conflict is disrupting farming and trade, displacement is putting pressure on host communities, damaged infrastructure is raising food-transport costs, and funding shortages are reducing the capacity to respond.
For agriculture, the warning is particularly significant. When drought strikes communities that already have limited access to inputs, irrigation, markets and financial protection, a poor harvest can rapidly become a food-security emergency.
South Sudan’s experience reinforces the importance of early warning systems, climate-resilient farming, local food production and anticipatory humanitarian action. WFP says it has already activated anticipatory-action plans in South Sudan and other vulnerable countries, providing early support before climate shocks intensify.
The challenge now is ensuring that assistance reaches vulnerable communities before failed harvests, rising food prices and depleted household resources turn the current crisis into an even deeper hunger emergency.
