South Africa’s family farmers are being urged to start preparing early for the 2026–27 production season as El Niño conditions raise the prospect of below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures across parts of the country.
The Southern African Agri Initiative (SAAI), which represents family farmers, has called for careful production and financial planning ahead of a summer season expected to begin around mid-October. The organisation warned that farmers should not wait for drought conditions to become severe before adjusting their planting and input decisions.
The warning follows the South African Weather Service’s 31 August Seasonal Climate Watch, which indicates that El Niño is occurring and is expected to continue through the 2026–27 summer. The government says many areas could experience below-normal rainfall, with higher temperatures increasing the risk of dry conditions and heat stress for crops and livestock.
For farmers, the risk comes at a time when production costs remain high. SAAI chairman Dr Theo de Jager pointed to high fertiliser and diesel costs, alongside flooding and foot-and-mouth disease earlier in 2026, as pressures already weighing on farm businesses.
The potential impact extends across both crops and livestock. Lower rainfall could affect planting decisions, crop yields, grazing conditions, water availability and farm cash flow. Irrigation producers could also face tighter water supplies if rainfall remains below normal.
However, South Africa is not entering the season from the same position as the severe 2015/16 drought. Above-normal rainfall during 2025/26 improved soil moisture and dam levels across many summer-rainfall areas, providing some buffer against early dry conditions. About 20% of summer grains and oilseeds are irrigated, meaning the majority remains exposed to rainfall patterns.
The Department of Agriculture is encouraging farmers to conserve soil moisture, avoid unnecessarily expanding production, select heat and drought-tolerant cultivars and remain within recommended planting windows. Livestock producers are being advised to match herd sizes to available grazing, use rotational grazing and prepare additional feed and water points.
SAAI is also warning farmers to prepare for increased fire risk, as heavy rainfall earlier in 2026 has produced greater vegetation that could provide additional fuel during a hotter, drier summer.
NBF Insight
The warning is less about predicting a failed season than getting farmers to manage risk before it becomes expensive. South Africa currently has stronger soil-moisture and water reserves than it did entering previous droughts, but early decisions on planting, seed, water, livestock numbers and farm budgets could determine how well family farms withstand whatever the 2026–27 season brings.
