A new policy analysis from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and MENA2050 is calling for greater U.S. engagement with Morocco and Tunisia to build a more diversified phosphate and fertilizer supply chain, arguing that disruptions to global phosphate trade have exposed vulnerabilities in American agricultural supply security.
The proposal, titled The Phosphate Pivot: Why Morocco and Tunisia Matter to U.S. Food Security, was authored by Ghazi Ben Ahmed, Sabina Henneberg and Mohsine El Ahmadi. The analysis argues that Washington should look beyond domestic production and develop a network of reliable international suppliers, with the Maghreb positioned as an important part of that strategy.
The urgency, according to the authors, increased after China restricted phosphate exports. They point to a sharp decline in Chinese phosphate exports in March 2025, from about 950,000 tonnes to 13,000 tonnes, followed by a formal export halt announced in December 2025 and extending through August 2026. During the same period, diammonium phosphate prices reportedly rose 28% over one year. The United States subsequently included phosphate on its 2025 list of critical minerals, alongside other resources considered important to national economic and security interests.
The analysis identifies Morocco as the potential industrial anchor of the proposed corridor. Morocco holds about 70% of the world's known phosphate reserves, according to the Washington Institute's analysis, while its OCP Group has developed an extensive system covering phosphate extraction, processing, and fertilizer manufacturing. The country has also built substantial logistics infrastructure connecting African, European and global markets.
Tunisia would provide the diversification component. The country has approximately 2.5 billion metric tonnes of phosphate reserves and occupies a strategically important position in the central Mediterranean. However, its phosphate industry has operated well below historical production levels because of years of underinvestment, labour disruptions and wider economic and political constraints. The proposal therefore envisages investment in mining, rail, ports, processing facilities and environmental technologies to rebuild Tunisia's productive capacity.
The proposed model is not a transfer of control over Tunisia's resources. Instead, the authors envisage joint ventures, shared processing capacity, coordinated logistics and technology transfer, with Morocco providing industrial scale and market access while Tunisia adds production capacity and geographic diversification. They also suggest that institutions including the World Bank, African Development Bank and U.S. International Development Finance Corporation could potentially support infrastructure and industrial development.
The proposal also reflects a broader shift in how phosphate is viewed. Traditionally treated primarily as a mining and fertilizer input, phosphate is now being considered a strategic agricultural resource because fertilizer availability directly affects crop yields, farm production costs and food prices. The Washington Institute argues that supply-chain resilience therefore requires diversification rather than simply replacing dependence on one supplier with dependence on another.
Importantly, the Morocco-Tunisia corridor remains a policy recommendation rather than a concluded agreement between Washington, Rabat and Tunis. The proposal comes from the three authors and calls for deeper economic and industrial cooperation; it does not announce a government-backed corridor or confirmed financing package. Recent Tunisian reporting has likewise described the concept as a proposed strategic architecture rather than an established project.
NBF Insight
The phosphate debate highlights an important reality for agriculture: food security begins long before a crop reaches the farm. Fertilizer minerals, processing capacity, transport infrastructure and international trade routes all form part of the food-production system.
For Morocco, the proposal reinforces the strategic importance of its position in the global phosphate and fertilizer industry. For Tunisia, it points to an opportunity to turn underutilised mineral reserves and Mediterranean geography into renewed industrial capacity.
For the United States, the underlying issue is diversification. A disruption in fertilizer supply can ultimately translate into higher production costs, pressure on farm profitability and higher food prices. The emerging phosphate debate therefore shows how mining, fertilizer manufacturing, logistics and agriculture are becoming interconnected in the global food-security equation.
