Ethiopia is targeting 18.9 million tonnes of wheat production in the 2026/27 season as the government prepares to expand cultivation under its summer irrigated wheat development programme to more than 4.5 million hectares, in a renewed effort to strengthen domestic grain supplies and sustain the country's drive towards wheat self-sufficiency.
The target was disclosed by Teshome Geletu, Lead Executive Officer for Crop Development at Ethiopia's Ministry of Agriculture, in an announcement published by the Ethiopian News Agency (ENA) on October 31, 2026. The new cultivation campaign is scheduled to begin in November, with the planned area representing an increase from the 3.78 million hectares cultivated under the programme during the 2025/26 season.
According to the Ministry, Ethiopia harvested approximately 14.9 million tonnes of wheat from the previous season's irrigated programme, equivalent to 149 million quintals. The new target of 18.9 million tonnes represents an increase of approximately 27% in projected production, alongside an expansion of more than 720,000 hectares in cultivated area.
The expansion builds on Ethiopia's efforts to move wheat production beyond the traditional reliance on seasonal rainfall. Through irrigation, the government is encouraging cultivation across different agroecological zones, including lowland areas previously considered unsuitable for wheat production. The approach also allows farmers in some locations to harvest up to three times annually, depending on water availability and production conditions.
Geletu said the programme had expanded considerably from its initial pilot phase, which covered approximately 20,000 hectares. The government now considers irrigated wheat production a major component of its agricultural transformation and food security strategy.
The programme represents a major shift in Ethiopia's approach to wheat production. For years, the country relied heavily on imports to bridge the gap between domestic production and consumption. According to the Ministry, Ethiopia previously spent between $700 million and $1 billion annually on wheat imports. Geletu said the expansion of domestic production had enabled the country to eliminate wheat imports since the 2021/22 fiscal year and begin developing its capacity to enter international wheat markets.
The Ministry's broader National Wheat Development Initiative has also expanded production across both rainy and dry seasons. Its figures show that irrigated wheat cultivation grew from 20,000 hectares in 2020 to 3.5 million hectares in 2025, demonstrating the scale of the country's investment in irrigation-led agricultural production.
However, achieving the new production target will depend on the timely implementation of the November planting campaign, access to irrigation water, improved farm inputs and the ability of farmers to maintain productivity across the expanded cultivation area.
NBF Insight
Ethiopia's wheat expansion highlights the role irrigation can play in transforming agricultural production in Africa, particularly in countries where dependence on seasonal rainfall limits farmers' ability to cultivate throughout the year.
The programme also demonstrates that food self-sufficiency requires more than expanding farmland. Investment in irrigation infrastructure, access to inputs, appropriate farming technologies, and the ability to increase productivity across different growing seasons are equally important.
For African countries that continue to spend substantial foreign exchange on imported wheat, Ethiopia's experience offers an opportunity to examine how domestic production can be expanded through irrigation and improved agricultural systems. The real test, however, will be whether the country can sustain its production growth while managing water resources and maintaining the productivity of its expanding cultivated areas.
