Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa shipments have climbed sharply in the 2025/26 marketing year, adding fresh pressure to global cocoa prices as stronger supplies from the world’s largest cocoa producer ease concerns about availability.
Farmers in Côte d’Ivoire shipped about 2.18 million tonnes of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025 and September 27, 2026, according to government data cited in commodity-market reports. The volume is 19.8% higher than the comparable period a year earlier, highlighting the strength of Ivorian supplies entering the international market.
The higher shipments follow a significant increase in Côte d’Ivoire’s previous harvest. The country’s cocoa regulator reported that production reached about 2.06 million tonnes between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% from approximately 1.58 million tonnes a year earlier. The larger crop has provided additional beans to exporters at a time when cocoa markets are adjusting from the supply shortages that drove prices sharply higher in previous seasons.
The supply picture has begun to weigh on futures markets. On September 28, December ICE New York cocoa fell 0.53%, while December London cocoa declined 0.71%, with the market retreating from recent one-week highs as traders responded to evidence of abundant Ivorian supplies. ICE cocoa inventories also reached about 3.45 million bags, their highest level in roughly two and a quarter years, adding another source of downward pressure.
For Côte d’Ivoire’s farmers, however, higher production does not necessarily translate into higher earnings. The government set the guaranteed farmgate price for the 2026/27 main crop at 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram (about $2.12), unchanged from the mid-crop level but sharply below the 2,800 CFA francs per kilogram paid at the opening of the 2025/26 main crop. The government has attributed the lower price to the fall and volatility in international cocoa markets.
The price reduction illustrates how quickly international cocoa-market conditions can feed back into farm economics. Côte d’Ivoire has also committed significant resources to managing the transition, with the government saying it and the Coffee and Cocoa Council mobilised 280 billion CFA francs in direct support and 231 billion CFA francs in budget adjustments to facilitate the removal of cocoa stocks.
At the same time, the country is trying to capture more value from the crop rather than relying overwhelmingly on exports of raw beans. The government has set a target of processing between 43% and 50% of Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa locally by 2030. The push comes as the country faces longer-term challenges including climate change, ageing cocoa orchards, soil degradation and post-harvest losses.
The current supply situation should also be viewed against the uncertainty surrounding the next crop. Recent market reports have pointed to forecasts of below-normal rainfall in parts of Côte d’Ivoire, which could affect the development of the 2026/27 crop. That means the present abundance of cocoa does not guarantee that supply pressure will persist throughout the new season.
Côte d’Ivoire is simultaneously expanding efforts to improve traceability. During the first weeks of the 2026/27 campaign, its National Traceability System recorded 50,085 tonnes of cocoa purchased between September 7 and September 20, involving 70,525 producers, while receipts at Abidjan and San Pedro ports were 51.6% higher than during the same period in 2025. The system is intended to track cocoa from farms through the supply chain as international markets place greater emphasis on origin and sustainability.
NBF Insight
The latest cocoa market movement shows that production volume and farmer prosperity are not the same thing.
Côte d’Ivoire is moving substantially more cocoa through its ports, yet the guaranteed price available to farmers has fallen sharply for the current season. That gap illustrates how quickly a change in global supply conditions can reshape the economics of cocoa production.
For Africa’s cocoa-producing economies, the longer-term opportunity therefore goes beyond producing more beans. Higher local processing, better traceability, stronger farmer productivity and greater participation in chocolate and cocoa-product manufacturing can help countries capture more value from a commodity whose international price remains highly volatile.
Côte d’Ivoire’s current experience is a reminder that a bigger cocoa harvest is valuable, but what happens to that harvest after it leaves the farm may determine how much of that value stays with producers and within the African economy.
